How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
6 markets Climate & ScienceEarthquakesWeatherNatural Disasters
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This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program …
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Each is an independent Yes/No market — these percentages don't sum to 100%.
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? 65% chance Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? 1% chance Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026? 19% chance Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? 4% chance Will there be exactly 4 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? 1% chance Will there be exactly 3 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? 1% chanceMarket discussion
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