2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory

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This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victor…

Markets in this event

Each is an independent Yes/No market — these percentages don't sum to 100%.

Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%? 3% chance

Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%? 2% chance

Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%? 8% chance

Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 6% and 8%? 28% chance

Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%? 25% chance

Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 10% and 12%? 16% chance

Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 4% and 6%? 10% chance

Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%? 4% chance

Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 12% and 14%? 6% chance

Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by 6% or more? 1% chance

Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by 16% or more? 1% chance

Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 4% and 6%? 1% chance

Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 14% and 16%? 1% chance

Will any other outcome occur in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections? Closed

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