Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
6 markets ScienceCultureGlobal TempWeather
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This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as nu…
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Each is an independent Yes/No market — these percentages don't sum to 100%.
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? 0% chance Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? 44% chance Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? 0% chance Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? 0% chance Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? 2% chance Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? 53% chanceMarket discussion
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